Ninth International Geostatistics Congress, Oslo, Norway
June 11 – 15, 2012



Abstract No.:



Play resource evaluation and geological risk assessment with model-based stochastic simulation with applications to unconventional oil plays in WCSB


J. Chen, Geological Survey of Canada (CA)
K.G. Osadetz, Geological Survey of Canada (CA)
X. Zhang, Emerson Process Management (CA)


Unconventional petroleum resources have changed the landscape of global petroleum supply dynamics in oil and gas markets. Resources plays represent significant addition to existing opportunities to expand oil and gas productions across America. The remaining frontiers for unconventional resources in Canada have attracted international investors for the new opportunity. Finding oil and gas resource opportunities and identifying economically viable ?prospects? within resource plays represent new challenges and require innovative technologies and concepts to maximize production potential. A model-based simulation for resource assessment and risk evaluation has been developed by the Geological Survey of Canada. This method includes a geological model representing essential petroleum system elements for hydrocarbon accumulations, a resource model describing distribution characteristics of hydrocarbon accumulations, and a simulation procedure integrating available data, relevant information and geoscience constraints to generate scenarios of petroleum resource maps in a play. This approach has been applied to evaluating play hydrocarbon potential and assessing geological risk in a number of plays, where subsequent drillings had generated data that validate the predicted resource potentials and risk predictions. In this paper, examples from shale and tight sand oil plays in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) are used to illustrate the application of model-based simulation to play resource evaluation and risk assessment. The predictions from the model-based simulation captures the essentials of geological controls on spatial distribution of petroleum accumulation and provides valuable information for exploration strategic planning and risk reduction.




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