The evolution of the art of modeling returns to oil and gas discovery mirrors three big ideas that changed what and how we compute:
? Moore?s law increases in computational speed
? Increasingly efficient computational algorithms and a
? Blossoming of Bayesian methods
We review how these ideas and some others shaped use of discovery process models to compute, estimate and predict undiscovered oil and gas from its inception in 1958 to now and speculate about the impact of big data and increasing clairvoyance on the future of modeling oil and gas discovery.