Ninth International Geostatistics Congress, Oslo, Norway
June 11 – 15, 2012


Environment 2

Abstract No.:



Assessment of long-term volcanic hazard using a Cox process with assimilation of tectonic data and geophysics


Olivier Jaquet, In2Earth Modelling Ltd (CH)
C. Lantuéjoul, MinesParisTech (FR)
J. Goto, NUMO (JP)


Quantification of long-term volcanic hazard becomes of paramount importance when assessing risks related to the isolation of potential geological repository sites. Such risk evaluation concerns many industrial regions around the world, in particular the Japanese archipelago due to its tectonically active nature. For sites near volcanically active regions, long-term volcanic hazards often constitute the dominant source of uncertainty as input for risk assessments. The complexity and non-linearity of volcanic processes, the space-time variability in terms of distribution and intensity for volcanic events and the limited amount of information make probabilistic estimation of volcanic hazard ineluctable. The needs for reliable methodologies for volcanic and tectonic hazard assessment in Japan have stimulated the development of specific stochastic models for improving uncertainty characterization. A Conditional Cox process with multivariate potential was developed for the assimilation of tectonic data (active faults) and geophysics (gravity data). A new iterative method based on a propagative version of the Gibbs sampler was applied for conditional simulation. The theoretical basis and concepts of the proposed model are given and then a methodological illustration is provided using data from the island of Kyushu.




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